Anika Begay
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Since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and the Democratic Party rallied around Vice President Harris, the political world has changed.
After Biden’s disappointing performance in the debate in late June, polls in swing states showed a small but significant decline for Biden, enough to knock him out of the race. Since Harris’ entry, however, he has seen a surge in the most competitive states with much more Democratic enthusiasm, but it’s still a very close election, according to an NPR analysis, that could go either way.
Former Republican President Donald Trump currently holds a 268-226 lead over Harris in NPR’s latest electoral map of the most competitive states (see map above), just shy of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Trump was leading in the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan before Biden’s exit, but those states are now completely swing states.
Trump’s leads in the Sun Belt states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada have been cut in half since Harris entered, due to rising Democratic enthusiasm and his appeal to younger, nonwhite voters. However, Trump maintains small but steady leads. That could change if Harris continues her momentum, but at this point, they’re slightly in the “Republican Rising” category.
This analysis isn’t just based on polls. It’s also informed by field reports, conversations with campaigns, and even considers the history of how states have voted in the past. We also include a map based strictly on polls (below). This shows a slightly closer 268-241 lead for Trump.
For state polls, NPR’s analysis relies on polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and DDHQ/The Hill. If a candidate had an average lead in either aggregator of 1 point or more as of Friday afternoon, it’s colored a shade of red for Trump or blue for Harris. If it was less, it’s yellow for “Toss Up.”
Map based strictly on surveys
That will change between now and November 5, and NPR’s maps will be updated periodically to reflect those changes. But for now, this analysis is meant to provide a rough overview of where the race currently stands since Harris entered, not necessarily where it will ultimately be.
Routes to the White House
Even though Harris is at the bottom of the NPR Election Map, she has more possible paths to 270 than Trump. Here’s how both could get there:
Harris
1. The Blue Wall: If Harris wins all three Blue Wall states, as well as the one congressional district in the Omaha, Nebraska area that Biden won handily in 2020, she would be at 270 without any of the Sun Belt states (assuming she wins all of the states that are leaning her way and are currently leading). That’s her easiest path to the White House, and for that reason, these Blue Wall states are a key focus of Harris’s campaign. It’s also why there’s been so much attention on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a potential running mate for Harris.
2. Sun Belt Options: If Harris can win one or more Sun Belt states, she could make up for the Blue Wall’s shortcomings. Her campaign is optimistic that she could turn things around in the Sun Belt, noting that it has seen an increase in not only donations but also volunteers in those states.
trump
1. Pennsylvania and Georgia are two unmissable victories: It’s become clear that Trump’s campaign sees these two states as places it needs to win. Just look at its ad spending. Since Super Tuesday, Trump and his allies have spent 77 percent of all their ad dollars in these two states: $50 million in Pennsylvania and $16 million in Georgia, according to AdImpact data analyzed by NPR.
Why are they so important? Trump would get to exactly 270 with these two states and the other states currently leaning in his favor, without having to win North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
