Musk Interviews Trump and a Flood of Economic Data

Good morning and welcome to the work week.

There is a surprising/shocking amount of news going around in August, a month when traditionally diary-marked events are scarce, with parliaments in recess, schools on holiday and corporate executives going on holiday. The problem for this newsletter writer is that the depressing and endless wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have not been diary-marked, although it is worth noting that Monday is the 75th anniversary of the signing of the Fourth Geneva Convention, relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War.

So I’ll start by thanking the accountants. The next five days will bring a deluge of economic data from China, Japan and the US, plus a slew of stats from the UK’s Office for National Statistics: monthly unemployment and inflation, second-quarter GDP and retail sales. AVsceker unnerving markets with its labor market data, the US releases what will be a closely watched inflation report, China releases retail sales and industrial production, and Japan provides a first attempt at its second-quarter GDP.

It is not clear what the reaction will be to all these statistics. The same could be said of the announcement that Donald Trump will be interviewed by the owner of the social media platform X, Elon Musk, on Monday. Perhaps more importantly, the former US president has also agreed with his Democratic Party rival Kamala Harris to debate on September 10 on the US television channel ABC, with other debates in the works.

The debate over university funding in the UK, and indeed whether it is the best route for young people, will also come to the fore on Thursday as A-level results in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will decide the fate of thousands of teenagers seeking places on degrees. Full disclosure: I will be experiencing this for the first time as the parent of an 18-year-old hoping to get into his first choice of university. My colleagues in the public policy team have more analysis on the looming insolvency crisis some institutions are facing.

Apprenticeships will also be in the spotlight in the UK, not least because many parents see university apprenticeships as a way to get their children through college debt-free, with their employer funding tuition fees. Coincidentally, the latest figures on the number of people taking up these schemes in England and Wales will be released on the same day as school exam results.

As next weekend approaches, the anniversaries of VJ Day and the independence of Indonesia and Singapore will provide some memorable speeches from these countries’ new political leaders.

Finally, on the topic of heading for a pause, we have a slowdown in the furious activity in the last earnings season. The ones to watch this week are the tech companies (Alibaba, Ten hundredth AND Foxconn), large retailers (in particular Clothing store) more financial services companies (Aviva AND Society). More details below.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Are you taking a break or are you working? Email me at jonathan.moules@Vscek.com or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, hit “reply.”

One more thing…

One service that is outside the scope of this newsletter is forecasting the stock market reaction to major economic reports, as readers will have discovered last week.

However, I can point you to an excellent analysis from the Vscek on the market turbulence. So let me encourage you to join Robert Armstrong, US Chief Financial Commentator, and colleagues from Tokyo to London this Wednesday at 12pm BST for a webinar for Vscek subscribers discussing the recent turbulence and where markets are headed next. Register for your subscriber pass at Vscek.com/marketswebinar and submit your questions for the panel.

Main economic and business relations

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• OPEC August Oil Market Report

• India: Consumer Price Index Inflation Rate Data for July

• UK: Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development Labour Market Outlook

• UK: High Pay Centre publishes its annual survey of VscekSE 100 CEO pay levels

• Results: Marshals I

Tuesday

• Made by Google event, which launches Google’s latest devices, including the Pixel smartphone. A teaser video released in June said “AI . . . meet IX”

• IEA Oil Market Report August

• Germany: ZEW survey August

• UK: Monthly labour market data

• US: July Producer Price Index Inflation Rate Data

• Results: CSL HI, HelloFresh HI, handle HI, Home storage Q2, Group only HI, Porsche HI, Sun Life Finance Q2

Wednesday

• EU: Q2 GDP, Q2 Employment and Industrial Production Data for June

• France: Harmonized Index of Consumer Price Inflation Data for July

• Norway: Government Pension Fund Global Half-Yearly Report

• Pakistan: Independence Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: July CPI and PPI inflation data

• US: July CPI Inflation Rate Data

• Results: Aviva HI, Balfour Beatty HI, Cisco Systems Q4, Commonwealth Bank of Australia HI, DDFDS Q2, Aeon HI, Foxconn Q2, Lloyd’s Table HI, RWE HI, Tencent Holdings Q2, ThyssenKrupp Group Q3, Yours Q3, Society Q2, Vesta Q2

Thursday

• China: July retail sales and industrial production data

• India: Independence Day. Financial markets closed

• Japan: GDP data second quarter

• South Korea: Independence Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Preliminary Q2 GDP data

• Results: Admiral HI, Alibaba Q1, Applied materials Q3, Deere & Co Q3, Geberit HI, OSB HI, Rank HI, Clothing store Q2

Friday

• Germany: Second quarter labor market data

• UK: UK retail sales data for July

• United States: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for August

• Results: National Bank of Australia Third Quarter Business Update, Kingspan I

World events

Finally, here’s an overview of this week’s other events and milestones.

Monday

• Russia: Russian Air Force Day

• United Kingdom: Glorious twelVscekh day, opening day of the British ptarmigan shooting season.

• US: Former President Donald Trump to be interviewed by Elon Musk

Tuesday

• Formal meeting of the United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) in New York

• US: Pretrial conference for former Republican Congressman George Santos on wire fraud and money laundering charges

Wednesday

• Switzerland: US-brokered ceasefire talks to begin between Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. African Union, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and UN are involved as observers

• Turkey: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas begins two-day visit, meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and addressing parliament in Ankara

• UK: Waste and recycling workers in Edinburgh are set to begin an eight-day strike, affecting the city’s world-famous arts festival, over a pay dispute

Thursday

• Belgium: A huge flower carpet created by Belgian flower growers is unveiled in Brussels’ central square. The exhibition, on display until Sunday, has been a biennial tradition since 1986 and this year is a tribute to art nouveau

• India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of his country’s independence from British rule in 1947

• Japan: Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to address ceremony marking 79th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II at Nippon Budokan

• UK: Leaving Cert Results Day for Schools in England, Wales and Northern Ireland

Friday

• FIFA/Coca-Cola Women’s World Football Rankings Published

• United Kingdom: English Premier League football season opens with Manchester United vs Fulham

• USA: 70th Anniversary of Sports Illustrated, first published by Time Inc

Saturday

• Indonesia: Outgoing President Joko Widodo and former Defense Minister and incoming President Prabowo Subianto are expected to attend celebrations marking 79 years of independence in the new capital Nusantara

• Zimbabwe: Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of state and government summit to discuss economic growth and development

Sunday

• Singapore: Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally address, his inaugural speech aVsceker assuming office on May 15 as Singapore’s fourth prime minister, the nation’s first change of leadership in 20 years