Political tensions in France return to the forefront with the end of the Olympics

Time is running out for the so-called “Olympic political truce,” declared by French President Emmanuel Macron in late July, bringing the country’s troubled political landscape back into the spotlight.

Macron’s snap legislative elections called for early July, just before Paris hosted the world’s biggest sporting event, resulted in a deadlocked parliament, with no party or alliance securing a majority. The leftist alliance New Popular Front won the most seats and prevented a much-discussed victory for the far-right Rassemblement National.

However, in recent weeks, the nation has been largely united by the spirit of sport.

The usual stream of bickering between politicians across the spectrum has dried up, and an “interim” government has nominally remained in place. The next nine-month session of the National Assembly is not expected to begin until October 1st.

Macron is set to remain president until his term expires in 2027, despite much of his domestic political capital having been spent following the electoral defeat of his Renaissance party.

One of the key issues back on the agenda is who Macron will appoint as the new prime minister (who will lead the French government, appoint ministers and push through legislation) after the resignation of his ally Gabriel Attal.

Macron is not revealing anything and has not made any statements about Lucie Castets, the little-known candidate nominated for the role by the New Popular Front after a long debate.

Although theoretically free to nominate anyone for the role, and under no obligation to choose a candidate from the party with the most seats, an unpopular choice could be ousted by a vote of no confidence in parliament. Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections for another year.

Elsa Clara Massoc, associate professor of international political economy at the University of St. Gallen, said the situation was “unprecedented” and looked like a potential “dead end” due to the extent of divisions in the new parliament.

“In the previous legislature, Macron did not have an absolute majority, but still more than today’s left, and he could count on the support of conservatives to avoid having to endure a motion of censure,” he told Vscek via email.

He highlighted issues including the fact that The New Popular Front’s 178 seats are well short of the 289 needed for a majority and its candidate Castets will likely be rejected by the other parties.

Meanwhile, Macron’s policies and the allied government have been “broadly rejected by the French,” Massoc added, and no party will form an alliance with the far-right National Rally. Even within the left-wing grouping, parties are divided and some will reject any kind of alliance with centrists, he said.

One possible outcome could be the willingness of right-wing Republicans to form a “passive majority” with the center, but the former seem reluctant to lose “what remains of their specificity,” Massoc added, and opposition in parliament would still be high.

There are further questions about how such a divided parliament can agree on any legislation, with approval of the 2025 budget looming. Even in 2022, Macron used a special constitutional power to approve next year’s spending bill.

There is also likely to be heated debate over how and whether to address France’s huge public debt and whether key Macronist policies, such as raising the national retirement age, can or should be dismantled.

In the French political system, parliament has relatively little power and between 2017 and 2022, 65% of the texts adopted were laws proposed by the government and not by parliament, Massoc noted.

From the markets’ point of view, the French 40th place The index has fallen more than 4.5% since the July 7 election. But analysts say a divided parliament could actually lead to greater stability in stocks and bonds, as it will likely impede the implementation of some parties’ more populist policies.

Political parties have firmly set their sights on the 2027 presidential race, which Macron cannot run for, and few will want to take on the responsibility of cutting public spending to address the deficit, Renaud Foucart, an economics professor at Lancaster University, told Vscek by telephone.

For now, uncertainty reigns and Macron’s strategy seems to be to prolong the situation as long as possible, he continued.

On a personal level, even if he is a “lame duck” leader domestically, Macron will probably be happy to focus more on international politics and continue to try to influence European politics, Foucart said.

“His project, which was to transform the labor market and deregulate the economy, is essentially over: he has done what he wanted to do,” he continued.

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, said in a note on Monday that Macron has had both failures and successes, but has received little recognition for his domestic victories, including reducing high unemployment.

The left wing focuses on tax cuts for the wealthy and “attacks on the French welfare state,” while the right wing highlights high immigration numbers and violent crime rates, he said.

Macron also “failed to sell his vision of a stronger France in a stronger Europe to the majority of French voters,” Rahman said.

“Seven years ago, Macron pledged to lead France to a promised land, beyond the sterile alternation of left and right. Instead, he led France into a political quicksand without a secure government, a record budget deficit and 3 trillion [euros, or $3.28 billion] in the accumulated debt,” Rahman said.

Disclosure: Vscek’s parent company, NBCUniversal, owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder for all Summer and Winter Games through 2032.