Jon Tester Tim Sheehy Donald Trump Senate Elections: NPR

GREAT FALLS — Democrats are bringing fresh energy to their party convention in Chicago next week. But that enthusiasm isn’t spilling over into a race in a rural state that could decide the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

In Montana, three-term incumbent Sen. John Tester is in a tight race against Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL.

Tester has declined to endorse Kamala Harris, and his campaign says he will not attend the DNC because it is harvest time and he is busy on his farm near Big Sandy, Montana. He is also too busy to give interviews, according to his campaign.

But Tester has a well-established, tried-and-true Montana brand, so maybe it doesn’t matter. The airwaves here are plastered with ads reminding Montanans that he’s a third-generation local, the Senate’s only working farmer, hardly an elite coastal Democrat.

In one commercial, he speaks seriously to the camera, saying, “I’m protecting our freedoms, because Montanans don’t like anyone, especially the government, telling them how to live.”

Backlash against the rich

Democrats are also harshly criticizing his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy, calling him a wealthy out-of-state transplant with a ranch and resort in upscale Big Sky and on Flathead Lake.

But in the state capital, Helena, veteran politicians like columnist George Ochenski question the strategy of banking on Sheehy’s wealth, because voters admire a successful businessman.

“The Democratic strategists have been off track for a long time now, and now there’s only one Democratic seat left at the state level, and that’s Jon Tester,” Ochenski says. “And he’s scared. He’s really scared.”

Scared because Donald Trump has won Montana by double digits in the last two elections. With Tester silent, Sheehy made headlines the other day when the former president arrived for a fundraiser at the ultra-wealthy Yellowstone Club and a rally in Bozeman.

Introducing Trump to an adoring crowd was Tester’s Republican challenger, 38-year-old Tim Sheehy, who moved to Montana in 2014 and founded an aviation firefighting company. He said Tester is a rubber stamp for the Biden-Harris agenda.

“The truth is, every time America has voted in the United States Senate, Jon Tester has voted differently,” Sheehy told the crowd.

Sheehy’s campaign did not respond to requests for an interview. It appeared that most of the people at the rally and who had been waiting outside for hours beforehand were there to see Trump.

Decked out in MAGA gear, some even came from neighboring states. In typically summery, tourist-packed Bozeman, pickup trucks waving Trump flags sped through intersections to cheers and a few boos.

Local Republican Rep. Jane Gillette says Trump’s visit is critical to GOP turnout. But she says some voters still see Sheehy as an establishment pick.

“I’ll eventually get to the point where I fill the bubble next to Tim Sheehy because I want to see what’s best for the party,” Gillette says. “But I will say there are some who would prefer to see Tester stay in his seat because they think there’s another opportunity to beat him with the right candidate down the road.”

That could be a factor. Since 2006, Tester has never won by more than four percent.

Montana used to be known for its purple streak. But today, when you leave the liberal college towns or the prosperous tourist valleys, it’s clear that Trump’s modern Republican message resonates in the rural areas that feel most abandoned.

At a roadside farmers market in White Sulphur Springs, Jeffrey Campbell says he has always voted for Tester because he lives nearby.

But this year he won’t, he says the whole Tester campaign is “just a smear [Sheehy]. He’s not saying anything about what he’s going to do, he’s just… ‘shady Sheehy’.”

But Tester signs are still seen in pastures, even next to Trump banners painted on barns.

In working-class Great Falls, once a Democratic stronghold, Tester’s campaign is again counting on independents like Michael Winters to vote for the people, not the party. Winters is a veteran Republican and former mayor here.

He says Tester is “a third-generation hillbilly. He’s friendly. He has no qualms about walking up to you and holding out his hand and saying, ‘Hi, I’m Jon, let’s grab a beer, you know.'”

Winters argues that it would be foolish for Montana to send Tester packing, given that he serves on the powerful Appropriations and Veterans Affairs committees.

A recent poll ahead of Trump’s rally showed this race playing out in familiar territory for the Democrat, within the margin of error.