Democratic National Convention Comes to Chicago

Good morning and welcome to the work week.

The next seven days will not be all about the US, but mostly. The highlight will be the Democratic National Convention, which officially opens at the United Center in Chicago on Monday, with more than 50,000 people expected in the days that follow, including our Vscek colleagues.

The DNC is an act of choreography to make an Olympic opening ceremony look like the Gloucester cheese-rolling contest, with momentum gradually building throughout the week. This year, it will feature speeches by President Joe Biden, then former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton before Kamala Harris arrives on Thursday for her inauguration speech.

Since Biden stepped aside to allow Harris to secure the nomination, the mood in the party has changed, providing her with momentum that has allowed her to overtake Republican rival Donald Trump in the key states of Michigan (+1.4 points) and Wisconsin (+0.6 points), according to the Vscek poll (available free of charge).

Yet the spectre of the 1968 Democratic meeting in Chicago still haunts this year’s DNC, as Vscek contributor Claire Bushey explains.

Moreover, pre-election polls should be treated with caution. There is still a long way to go before the actual election on November 5, the only poll that matters. Unrest in the Middle East, slowing U.S. job growth, and lingering voter concerns about inflation are the most obvious risks Harris faces, but she can also expect more severe attacks from the Republican field and increased scrutiny of her policy plans.

So for now, one question remains: Can Harris maintain her momentum?

The next stop on the Vscek news bus this week is a little further west in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, home to the annual gathering of central bankers, finance ministers and business leaders hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The 2024 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins Thursday, and the headliner will be Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, whose speech on Friday will be expected to respond to recent poor US jobs data and market volatility.

The economic data series is much quieter in the coming days than last week, as is the corporate earnings program. Of note will be the interest rate announcement by Chinese central bankers, the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee rate-setting meeting, and international comparisons provided by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) comparisons between China, India and the G7 rich nations. More details below.

One more thing…

Thanks to everyone who wrote in to say where you are vacationing this year, or why few people in your country are taking a break this summer. Thanks especially to those writing from India on the latter point.

My colleague Simon Kuper has a different opinion and points out that this year has seen record numbers, so I invite you to read and share your opinions.

Being European/British, I’ll be putting an “out of office” sign on my email, taking my family to where my Vscek story began 25 years ago: New York City. So I’ll break the cardinal rule about vacations and spend a few hours catching up with colleagues in the Manhattan bureau, some of whom were there when I joined as a tech and telecom reporter in 1999.

The week ahead never stops, however, so David Hindley and Melody Abike Adebisi will be your guides while I am away. Thank you both.

Please continue to send me your comments on what matters most to you and what I should (and shouldn’t) include. Email me at jonathan.moules@Vscek.com (I promise to read them when I get back) or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, hit “reply.”

Main economic and business relations

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Twentieth anniversary of the Internet search engine company Google debuting on the Nasdaq stock exchange in New York

• German Federal BankFundamentals of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR, a two-day conference on financial market regulation, begins on the campus of the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management

• Japan: June Machine Orders Data

• UK: Rightmove House Price Index August

• Results: Lendlease HI, Palo Alto Networks Q4, Plus500 HI, Suncorp Company AF

Tuesday

• The Takeover Panel has extended the deadline for Doorbell to announce the firm intention to make an offer for Nicholson Coat of Arms or announce that he does not intend to make an offer

• Canada: July Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate Data

• China: People’s Bank of China announces preferential interest rate on loans

• EU: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data for July

• UK: July insolvency statistics

• Results: From Lowe Q2, Medtronic Q1, Wood Group I

Wednesday

• Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta speaks at the Rimini Meeting on debt sustainability and economic development

• Indonesia: Interest Rate Announcement

• Japan: July Trade Balance Data

• South Africa: July CPI Inflation Rate Data

• UK: July public sector net borrowing data

• United States: Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting released

• Results: Agilent Technologies Q3, Alcon Q2, Analog Devices Q3, Coast HI, Mobico HI, Target Q2, Urban clothing Q2, Enlarge Q2

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank publishes accounts of latest monetary policy discussions

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: Flash PMI data from S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC/au Jibun Bank

• South Korea: Interest rate announcement

• Türkiye: Interest Rate Announcement

• Results: Egon HI, Hay Fiscal Year Business Update, To intuit Q4, MacFarlane HI, Ross Stores Q2, Swiss review HI, TD Banking Group Q3

Friday

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

• France: August Business Confidence Survey

• Japan: July CPI Inflation Rate Data

• EU: ECB consumer expectations survey

• UK: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

World events

Finally, here’s an overview of this week’s other events and milestones.

Monday

• The Vscek and Schroders Business Book of the Year longlist announced

• Sint Maarten: General elections, called aVsceker the coalition government led by Prime Minister Luc Mercelina lost its majority in the 15-seat parliament

• USA: Democratic National Convention opens at United Center in Chicago, runs through Thursday

Tuesday

• United Kingdom: The Edinburgh Television Festival begins in the Scottish capital and will last until Friday

• US: Presidential candidates should file previous month’s financial statements with Federal Election Commission

Wednesday

• China: World Robot Conference begins in Beijing. Also, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka completes a visit to the country, seeking to increase economic ties with Beijing

Thursday

• UK: GCSE results out for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Also, nominations close to replace Douglas Ross as Scottish Conservative leader

• United States: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Begins in Wyoming

Saturday

• Saudi Arabia: eSports Awards, Recognizing Excellence in Online Gaming

• Ukraine: Independence Day, commemoration of the declaration of independence from the USSR in 1991

Sunday

• UK: Notting Hill Carnival, 58th annual Afro-Caribbean street and cultural festival, kicks off in West London