Anika Begay
Data shows that the recent crash has not shaken long-time Bitcoin holders, as they have only further increased their supply.
The change in the net position of long-term holders of Bitcoin has been positive recently
As analyst Ali Martinez explains in a new post on X, the supply held by long-term BTC holders increased during the cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.
“Long-term holders” (LTH) here refers to Bitcoin investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days. This group is one of the two main divisions of the BTC market based on holding time, with the other cohort being known as “short-term holders” (STH).
Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell or transfer them at any time, so LTH represents the stubborn side of the industry.
While STHs react easily to market events, LTHs tend to hold firm, regardless of whether there is a rally or a crash. Since Bitcoin has seen a crash recently, one might expect the first cohort to panic again, while LTHs would remain firm.
One way to track the behavior of any cohort is through the “Net Position Change” indicator, which tells us the net amount of BTC entering or leaving the group’s combined balance.
Below is a chart showing how this metric has performed for Bitcoin LTH over the past few months.
The value of the metric seems to have been positive in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X
As seen in the chart, Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has maintained notable positive levels during the recent bearish price action. This means that the total value of the group’s holdings has increased.
In these latest inflows, LTHs have seen their supply increase by 184,500 BTC, worth over $10.8 billion at the current exchange rate. One thing to keep in mind is that this recent increase does not indicate that these HODLers have been buying in the present.
This is because the indicator has a 155-day lag attached, as coins are only included in the cohort after they have aged for this period. So, the recent increase would mean that these coins were purchased five months ago and are now mature enough to become part of the group.
However, the same rule does not apply to selling, as the age of the coins is immediately reset to zero as soon as they are transferred through the blockchain, thus expelling them from the pool.
While the recent positive change in LTH net position does not imply that accumulation is underway at the moment, it is still a bullish signal as it means that the HODLing crash has not shattered the conviction.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $58,900, down nearly 7% from last week.
Looks like the price of the asset has continued its recovery during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
