Anika Begay
A major shift is happening in the world of Bitcoin. Over time, US-based ETFs will become the largest holders of Bitcoin, even surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptocurrency’s mysterious founder. This development certainly also captures the growth of institutional interest in the cryptocurrency space.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has surprised the cryptocurrency community with a bold prediction regarding Bitcoin ownership. Balchunas argues that if current trends continue, the world’s most elusive man, Satoshi Nakamoto, will no longer own the largest share of the cryptocurrency by the end of the year. This prediction suggests a dramatic shift in the Bitcoin ownership landscape, with institutional players rapidly gaining traction.
I didn’t realize that US ETFs are on track to surpass Satoshi in bitcoin holdings in October. BlackRock alone is already in third place and on track to become the first by the end of next year, and will likely remain there for a long time Ht @EdmondsonShaun photo.twitter.com/QGsO00zrxp
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 12, 2024
In this regard, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin is not on the top list, with only about 1.1 million BTC reportedly in his/her/their possession. However, US-based Bitcoin ETFs, which currently manage about 909,700 BTC, are quickly catching up with this number, reinforcing a new reality of an influx of traditional financial institutions into the ecosystem.
As these ETFs continue to gain popularity, Nakamoto’s dominance could be surpassed, marking a shift in Bitcoin’s ownership dynamics. This total does not include Grayscale’s holdings, which would reduce the ETF count to approximately 645,899 BTC.
Institutional dominance
The rapid growth of Bitcoin concentration by US ETFs can be attributed primarily to institutional players. BlackRock, the world’s largest investment manager, has also evolved into a heavyweight in the bitcoin space. With 347,767 BTC in its IBIT Bitcoin ETF, it is now the third largest holding and, at this rate, will likely surpass all others before the end of 2025.
Bitcoin market cap currently at $1.20 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com
Fidelity’s Foray into Cryptocurrency
Another financial giant, Fidelity, has also made significant inroads into the cryptocurrency space. It currently holds 176,626 BTC, and its FBTC fund helps underscore the growing institutional participation in the market. Grayscale, another popular digital asset manager, has taken another step in institutionalizing the Bitcoin ecosystem by essentially holding 263,801 BTC.
The real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains a mystery. Image: Pixabay
Bitcoin: Program Estimation
According to analysts, Bitcoin ETF holdings could even surpass Nakamoto’s as early as October 2024. The timeline takes into account the current accumulation rate and the expected growth of the cryptocurrency market. Of course, institutional interest in Bitcoin will only grow in the coming years, when players like Fidelity and BlackRock, leaders in this field, will have substantial investments directed at the same area.
That Bitcoin ETFs have become the largest holders of the cryptocurrency is great news. It highlights how Bitcoin is becoming more widely accepted and how institutional investors are becoming more confident in the cryptocurrency space. The more trust people and organizations have in Bitcoin, the less doubt we will have and soon we may even see more institutional money flowing into the space.
What this means for the future of Bitcoin, i.e. whether the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market will change with institutional investors at the helm, remains unclear. However, a new era is beginning in the world of Bitcoin and it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
Featured image from JPM & Partners, chart from TradingView
