Egg prices rise again as bird flu limits supply

Egg prices are rising, putting this staple back in the spotlight as consumers continue to worry not just about inflation but also about the absolute level of prices.

July marked the third consecutive month in which egg prices increased on a year-over-year basis, a reversal from a year of relative declines. The culprit was the ongoing battle against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, known as HPAI or Bird Flu for short.

Prices for the essential food ingredient jumped 19.1% in July from the same month a year earlier, according to data from the consumer price index, or CPI, released this week. By comparison, the entire basket of CPI items rose just 2.9% in the same period.

Egg price inflation has become a focal point for consumers during the pandemic, given their ubiquity in everyday cooking. Increases in egg prices and other food items have been a focus of attention for consumers grappling with higher costs, in turn hurting consumer sentiment in recent years.

But the latest surge in inflation seems more closely linked to a nearly 8% spike from March to April, which may be linked to seasonal patterns in avian influenza. It was the largest month-over-month increase since spring 2023.

“The short answer, we think, is avian influenza,” said Caitlinn Hubbell, a market research analyst at Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability in West Lafayette, Ind. “As unfortunate as it may be, high-path avian influenza has continued to circulate.”

Avian influenza had a historic outbreak in 2022 and has been on the rise again since late 2023. More recently, Hubbell said resurgences in Colorado and California have hurt supplies.

Demand for eggs is considered “inelastic,” Hubbell said, meaning consumers will typically buy the same amount regardless of price increases. On the other hand, he noted, consumers typically won’t stock up when they see lower costs.

Inelastic items tend to see large price swings even for small changes in supply, he said. That could underscore the impact of any bird flu outbreak on the prices customers see on supermarket shelves.

For shoppers, that has led to higher prices. The average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs topped $3 in July for the first time in more than a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Despite this reacceleration, prices are still more than 20% below levels seen last year. However, the price of eggs tracked within the CPI basket is up about 42% compared to July 2021.

Looking ahead, Hubbell said price movements will depend on the status of avian flu. But he hopes consumers will see some relief as future seasons are less likely to bring outbreaks.

“It’s hard to say,” Hubbell said. “It all depends on the impact on the size and scope of HPAI.”