Anika Begay
Former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamal Harris
News
Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.
The poll found Harris beating Trump by 50% to 46% among likely voters in all three states, though those advantages were within the poll’s margins of error. Likely voters are a subset of the entire pool of registered voters surveyed.
From Monday to Thursday, the poll interviewed 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin. From Tuesday to Friday, the poll interviewed 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania.
The comparative results are slightly different when considering all registered voters: Harris held a four-point lead in Wisconsin, but had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania and actually trailed Trump by three points in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the latest data to track the largest shakeup since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris to take over as the Democratic presidential nominee. While the poll still shows the candidates neck and neck, it’s clear that Harris has dramatically changed the state of the race from just a month ago.
In the weeks since Biden’s exit, Harris has recovered much of the ground she lost in the Democratic polls and in some cases even surpassed Trump.
In May, even before the president’s disastrous performance in the June debate, Times/Siena polls found Biden tied with Trump in Wisconsin. Biden trailed the Republican presidential nominee in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
A result that has remained the same despite the Democratic Party reshuffle: the economy is one of the most important issues for registered voters.
Recession fears came to the fore last week, after stock markets plunged on Monday and struggled to reclaim gains in the days that followed. The market decline was partly the product of a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve’s failure to cut interest rates was putting too much pressure on the economy.
According to the Times/Siena poll, Trump has a nine-point advantage among voters over Harris on his handling of the economy.
The Times/Siena polls were also conducted as voters were working out their choice of Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom she selected Tuesday after a turbocharged selection process. Although Walz had little national notoriety just two weeks ago, he has been thrust into the spotlight for his candid media interviews, affable demeanor and his move into politics after working as a high school teacher.
Despite Walz’s highly progressive political record, some Democrats saw his rural Midwestern background as an opportunity to expand the Democratic coalition.
The Times/Siena poll found Walz had a 36 percent approval rating among registered voters, the same as Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. However, only 27 percent of respondents gave Walz an unfavorable approval rating compared to 46 percent of voters for Vance.
In addition to her poll gains, Harris has enjoyed a surge in enthusiasm in the form of record levels of donations, new volunteer sign-ups, and arena-filling crowds at rallies since she launched her campaign for president.
With 87 days to go until the election and even fewer days before early voting, the Harris campaign is working to ensure that the initial enthusiasm translates into actual votes at the polls.
“We’re underdogs in this race, but we have momentum, and I know exactly what’s coming,” Harris told a rally of more than 12,000 people in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
