Iran Sees Signs of Threatened Attack on Israel

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), a group of 57 countries, held an emergency meeting in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Wednesday at Iran’s request to discuss, among other things, the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.

The meeting was an opportunity for Iran, whose Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has promised “harsh punishment” for the killing, to lay out the case for an expected retaliation.

Both Iran and Hamas say the assassination was carried out by Israel, which has not commented but is widely believed to have ordered it.

Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani said his country had “no choice” but to respond and that it would do so “at the right time and in the appropriate form.”

Mr Kani also described the possible Iranian response as “not only a defense of its own sovereignty and national security,” but also a “defense of the stability and security of the entire region.”

Haniyeh was killed in a highly secured guesthouse run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite military force, while in Tehran for the inauguration of the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in a humiliating breach of Iranian security.

Since then, every signal, speech and statement from Iran has been closely monitored for an indication of how and when it might respond, for fear that retaliation could lead to a wider conflict with Israel.

But Mr Kani offered no clues, and given the apparent limited nature of the information provided by the West, it remains unclear what Iran is planning to do.

In April, an attack on Iran’s diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital Damascus killed eight officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), another attack believed to have been carried out by Israel and another embarrassing setback for Iran.

After days of communicating its intentions, Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel; nearly all were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition, and the retaliation had no significant impact.

Last week, some American officials speculated that Iran might be preparing a larger operation this time, perhaps in an effort to avoid repeating that failure.

However, recent media reports suggest that the details of how Haniyeh’s assassination was carried out – perhaps from inside Iran with local assistance rather than a precise air strike from outside – coupled with the fact that no Iranians were killed and diplomatic efforts by Western and Arab countries, may have forced Tehran to reconsider its plans.

Jordan’s foreign minister made a rare visit to Iran earlier this week, and on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Mr Pezeshkian and, according to the French presidency, urged him to “do everything possible to avoid a new military escalation.”

Meanwhile, there is also the expectation of another planned attack against Israel, by Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia and political movement in Lebanon.

The group promised to respond to Israel’s killing of senior commander Fuad Shukrwhich occurred a few hours before Haniyeh’s assassination, in his stronghold of Dahiya, in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Fears of a full-scale conflict in Lebanon have been at a high since Hezbollah stepped up its attacks against Israel, a day after Hamas’s October 7 attacks.

Most of the violence has been limited to areas along the Lebanese-Israeli border, with Hezbollah and Israel continuing to declare they are not interested in all-out war.

So far, the group has primarily targeted Israeli military facilities, although its attacks are increasingly sophisticated and hitting positions deeper inside the country.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who has promised a “strong” and “effective” response, described Shukr as one of the “strategic minds of the resistance” and said he had spoken on the phone an hour before his assassination.

In the past, Hezbollah has responded to the killing of high-ranking commanders by launching rocket attacks into Israel. Assassinating such a high-profile figure at their base in the Lebanese capital will likely prompt a more symbolic response, though it is almost certain to fall within what the group describes as its rules of engagement.

Yet in Lebanon, where people still remember the devastation caused by the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, many fear being dragged into a conflict that is not in the nation’s interests.

But a damaged Hezbollah is not in Iran’s interests either.

With its precision missiles and attack drones, Hezbollah is a key element of Iranian deterrence, right on Israel’s borders.

Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, and Hezbollah would likely play a key role in Iran’s response if its facilities came under Israeli attack.

Hezbollah is the lead group in the so-called Axis of Resistance, an Iranian-backed alliance spanning the region that includes the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, which have also conducted attacks against Israel and Western targets since October.

It is not known whether Iran and its allies will coordinate their response, although some reports published in the US media suggest that Hezbollah may act independently and first.

This week, General Michael Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, visited Israel to assess security preparations, and the United States is expected to again lead efforts to protect Israel in the event of an Iranian attack.

And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “exact a high price for any act of aggression against us, wherever it comes from.”

As the wait continues, flights to Israel and Lebanon are being cancelled or suspended, airlines are avoiding the countries’ airspace and Foreign governments are urging their citizens to leaveSome people are preparing for war and the region could, deliberately or accidentally, slide into war.