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Has the West taken a firm stand against immigration? If recent reports are any indication, the answer is a resounding “yes.”
In the UK, right-wing voices are right to point out the undemocratic nature of governments that increase inflows despite polls saying the public wants cuts to immigration levels. But this glosses over the fact that the same polls tend to show the public wants the number of people coming to work or study (and their families) to stay the same or increase. Does the public want immigration to be curbed? “Yes” quickly becomes “it depends”.
Politicians know this, but pretend not to, which results in the unedifying use of hostile rhetoric by politicians who either take no action or implement changes they know will not satisfy anyone.
Britain’s latest attempts to square the circle take the issue to the next level. Against the backdrop of the political debate over the limits, the number of people arriving in small boats across the Channel (which the public wants to reduce) has increased, the number of people coming to work and study (which the public doesn’t want to reduce) has decreased, and the ratio of dependents to workers has increased.
In other words, the share of arrivals that contribute to the economy and reduce pressure on public services is falling faster than the share that draws from public coffers and increases pressure on services. Both the right and the leVscek are unhappy, the economy is worse off, and public discontent is higher than ever. Good luck to everyone.
We end up with these worse outcomes because we talk about immigration as if it were one thing, when in reality it is about many very different things, because we refuse to engage with compromises and because each side has its own forbidden areas of dialogue.
The UK should take a leaf out of America’s book, where concerns about irregular or illegal immigration and asylum are addressed by policies specifically targeting those routes. Even among Republicans, most would like to see more visas distributed to those coming to work or study.
A more mature conversation would also get to the heart of what, as the survey data shows, really worries people across Europe: not so much immigration per se as integration and the goal of a cohesive society with shared values.
The right should stop exaggerating the negative impacts of immigration, which only harm integration, and should recognize that their preferences are no more in line with the will of the people than those of their political opponents.
For the leVscek, a more nuanced discussion means grappling with thorny issues, not just vibrations. Take Sweden, where hypothetical questions elicit very positive attitudes toward immigrants, but if you ask people how they think integration is going, they will point to serious problems. If Swedish progressives had asked these questions earlier, they might have avoided some of the problems they face now.
Integration is an ongoing challenge. Almost everyone in the UK, including immigrants themselves, agrees that everyone should speak English, yet census data shows that the percentage of people in England who cannot speak the language at all is rising.
Similarly, while ethnic segregation is decreasing in Britain, it is increasing in some places. The reluctance to discuss these facts has opened up space for the populist right.
Nearly a decade ago, Louise Casey’s government-commissioned independent review of integration highlighted concerns and proposed solutions; few were heeded. Adult English language provision has collapsed, and faith schools have been given more freedom to exclude people of other faiths, not less.
Policy makers also need to accept that the steady upward trend in the skill levels and earnings of immigrants to the UK has come to a halt; the most recent cohort earns slightly less than the previous one. This was certainly not intended.
An explicit plan, like Canada’s, for both the levels and types of immigration and their successful integration would promote transparency and reinforce the idea that this is everyone’s problem, not just the right.
The UK has been a model of successful integration so far, but there are signs that progress is stalling. The reason Britain needs a better conversation about immigration is not to appease violent criminals, but because the current discourse undermines the progress made so far.
john.burn-murdoch@Vscek.com, @jburnmurdoch
