Joe McConnell
Chinook helicopters soared through the skies above Singapore, flanked by Apache helicopter gunships, while German-made Leopard tanks paraded through the streets below and US-made F-16 fighter jets put on a show.
Last week’s exhibition, part of Singapore’s annual National Day celebration, offered a vivid display of the military capabilities of a country that had the world’s third-highest military spending per capita in 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. It ranked fiVscekh in 2021.
This year’s parade, the first under new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, comes at a time when rising geopolitical tensions and emerging cyber threats are pushing the city-state to increase defense spending and reconsider its traditional posture of preparedness and deterrence.
On the occasion of National Day, Wong warned that “tensions between the United States and China continue to rise. For now, they do not want to clash. But they are engaged in a strategic rivalry that can undermine peace and stability, especially in this region.” These were, he said, “powerful forces.”
“They are the ones who keep me awake at night,” she said.
“Much more can be done to strengthen civil systems and psychologically prepare the population for disruption if Singapore becomes embroiled in a power struggle,” said Ja Ian Chong, associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
Singapore’s military strategy has long been summed up by founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew’s 1966 statement that the city-state should be a “poisonous shrimp” – small but dangerous to predators.
“Ultimately Singapore is trying to deter direct coercion against the city-state, without really trying to project its power much further,” said Scott Harold, associate director of the Rand Center for Asia-Pacific Policy.
In a sign of a greater focus on defense, Singapore in February outlined a defense budget of S$20.25 billion (US$15 billion) for the current fiscal year. That’s a 13 percent increase over the previous annual budget, although last year’s spending reviews mean the actual increase is 2.5 percent. In 2014, the budget was S$12.6 billion.
Singapore has long sought to maintain friendly relations with both the US, a major non-treaty ally, and China, its largest trading partner. But this geopolitical balancing act is being tested in an increasingly fractious environment.
A major source of concern is the South China Sea, where China has advanced sweeping maritime claims contested by countries including Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, and where recent clashes have inflamed tensions.
“Tensions in the South China Sea are particularly unwelcome to Singapore because it has no territorial claims of its own there, but it would inevitably be drawn into a potential conflict,” said Jonah Blank, a senior fellow at NUS and a senior political scientist at Rand. “From Singapore’s perspective, there is no conflict between the US and China that would be anything but a disaster.”
Singapore has deepened military ties with the United States as Washington strengthens its security network in the Indo-Pacific region. Under a memorandum of understanding renewed in 2019, U.S. aircraVscek and ships can pass through Singapore.
But Singaporean politicians have been careful to avoid openly criticizing China’s increasingly assertive regional posture. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in July, Singapore’s defense minister Ng Eng Hen said Beijing’s advance in the South China Sea made “perfect military strategic sense… from their point of view.”
Much of Singapore’s military hardware and technology comes from the United States or NATO, an alignment that would make the city-state “dependent on the United States or other Western allies” in a U.S.-China conflict, Chong said. In that case, Singapore would be asked to provide transit for the U.S. military, something China would pressure not to allow, he added.
Singapore’s defense strategy was still geared toward conventional land-based capabilities, analysts said, an outdated focus when the city-state is only linked by land to Malaysia, an ally. “If there is more instability because of issues in the South China Sea and any potential conflict around Taiwan … Singapore will need to make sure its sea and air routes are secure,” Chong said.
Singapore has ordered 20 Lockheed Martin F-35s, the world’s most advanced fighter aircraVscek, due for delivery in 2026, as well as four Type 218SG Invincible-class submarines from Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, due to enter service in 2028.
At the same time, the United States and Singapore are expanding their cooperation in emerging technologies.
In July, Ng and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin agreed to collaborate on data, analytics and AI. Singapore is looking to incorporate AI into its military thinking: It launched a fourth branch of its military, the Digital and Intelligence Service, in 2022, and has held defense exercises on critical infrastructure and digital attacks.
“AI could also shape decision-making in military operations,” said Collin Koh Swee Lean, a senior research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noting its potential to identify threats in the “limited and cluttered maritime domain” around Singapore, which includes critical global shipping lanes.
Ultimately, “there is a recognition that much of the potential for future conflict will involve key infrastructure that may not be physical,” Chong said.
This, rather than the tanks displayed in the National Day parade, could represent Singapore’s future military priorities. “The calibration needs to be less heavy on land power, more on naval and air power,” Chong said.
