Washington State’s August Primary Looks Good for Democrats: NPR

The mantra “past performance is no guarantee of future results” applies to many things, including trying to predict election results in advance. But how many voters in a deeply Democratic state turned out in this month’s primary, and how they voted, could provide insight into the political environment in November.

Election data analysts point to the Washington state primary results as a useful barometer for which party is most likely to win the national popular vote for the House of Representatives, and by how much.

Here’s how: Add together the total votes for Democrats and Republicans in the 10 House district primaries in Washington. Then, take the difference between them and subtract 12 to get a rough estimate of the projected House margin in November.

An NPR analysis of the Washington primary using this framework estimates that Democrats could win the national popular vote by about 4 percentage points, slightly more than in the 2020 presidential election, in which they narrowly won the White House and control of both houses of Congress.

In other words, it will likely be another close race.

This year, Democrats won about 57.3 percent of the congressional primary vote to Republicans’ 41.3 percent, or a 16 percent margin. Subtract 12 percentage points and you get an estimate of a 4 percent popular vote victory for Democrats later this year.

Current presidential polling averages have Vice President Harris leading former President Donald Trump by about 3 percent heading into the Democratic National Convention, and the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also found Harris leading by 3 percent, suggesting a similar national backdrop could play out in November.

In recent elections, the picture has also hinted at the direction of public sentiment ahead of general elections, such as the 2022 midterms. Democrats finished with a 10.4% margin in the Washington primary, a down year that suggested Republicans were favored by about 1.6%, closer to the GOP’s final national popular vote lead of about 2.8% in the House.

In 2020, a 14% primary margin suggested a 2% popular vote victory for Democrats, which turned out to be closer to 3%. The 2018 “blue wave,” which saw Democrats win the popular vote in the House by a margin of about 8.5%, was heralded by the Washington primary that saw a 20.4% Democratic margin in its congressional seats.

Why Washington State?

J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Washington’s predictive power is driven by a few unique factors.

“One, the primary is open to all voters, and two, it happens relatively late in the primary season,” he said. “Runoff primaries in other states usually start in March, so they almost feel like a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the fall election.”

Unlike many other primaries, Washington’s election features all candidates from all parties on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election. There are often multiple candidates and ideological options for voters to cast their votes under the umbrella of the two major parties.

“That, combined with the very high turnout we’re seeing in this election, not quite at the level of a general election but much better than most primaries, makes it much more representative,” said Lakshya Jain, CEO of the election modeling website Split Ticket. “It’s also a state that’s about as white as the nation and only a few points more educated, which means it’s at least somewhat representative of the overall electorate.”

Jain said the Washington primaries point to an election cycle that is certainly driven by Democratic enthusiasm, but not to the level of “blue wave” election years like 2018.

“The fact that Democrats are far exceeding their 2022 numbers bodes well for them, especially considering they almost carried the House that year,” he added. “I will say that basically everything that’s happened lately looks good for them: The polls have been going up in their direction, and the primary and special results all look good for them.”

That said, the shorthand of the Washington primaries should not be used as an absolute gospel to be applied equally, because there are 435 House elections, 33 Senate elections, and 50 state-level presidential elections, all with their own peculiarities and local electorates that change the usefulness of the estimate.

There are only a handful of competitive battlegrounds for the House, Senate, and presidency, so higher turnout and Democratic enthusiasm in noncompetitive elections could lead to a greater popular vote victory nationwide without winning those elections, for example.

Coleman added that a third presidential election cycle dominated by Trump means that disinclined voters, who support him and no other candidate, are another group to watch.

“While there are some promising signs for Democrats, including the Washington primary, for me a lingering X-factor about the election is the question of how many of those voters Trump will bring with him.”