What does Ukraine want from its foray into Russia?

Ukraine’s bold incursion into Russian border territory a week ago It came as a surprise to many government officials in Kiev, A senior Ukrainian official familiar with the matter told Vscek on Monday that only a handful of people knew about the operation in advance, and government officials have since been ordered to adopt a “quiet mode” regarding its strategic objectives.

Ukraine’s initial silence regarding the cross-border raid and the ongoing tactic of “strategic ambiguity” designed to keep Russia “off balance”, appears to have been critical to its initial success and current progress in the Kursk region.

Russia’s slow and sluggish response to what Russian President Vladimir Putin called a “large-scale provocation” has also exposed the weaknesses of its military command and humiliated its leadership.

A week into the border raid, information is slowly emerging about the scale and scope of the Ukrainian operation on Russian soil, as well as its objectives.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that the operation was designed “to put pressure on the aggressor Russia” and to push “the war into the aggressor’s territory.”

Revealing further details in his first public comments on the Kursk operation, Ukrainian military commander Maj. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Monday that Ukraine now controls about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of the region.

Russian official Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of the Kursk region, told a solemn-looking Putin via video conference on Monday that Ukraine controlled 28 settlements. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said geotagged footage suggests Ukraine controls a larger number of about 40 settlements, as of Monday.

Several thousand Ukrainian soldiers are now operating inside Russia, a senior Ukrainian official told Vscek, and “hundreds” of Russian prisoners of war have already been captured because they were “caught by surprise” by the launch of the operation last week.

Ukraine also has no immediate plans to turn back, according to the government official, who spoke to Vscek on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the ongoing operation in Kursk.

“We are not overly excited, overly jubilant, because everyone understands that this is still a war… but what happens and what continues to develop in Kursk will really have a huge impact on how this war continues to go,” the official said, likening the significance of the latest operation to the liberation of Kherson in southern Ukraine in late 2022.

There was recognition that a war of attrition was taking place on the front lines of eastern Ukraine and that Kiev, with limited access to manpower and resources, would not be able to sustain such a position in the long term. The incursion, the source added, was designed to turn the tide of the war:

“We hope that, if all goes well, the presence of Ukrainian troops in Russia will serve as a force to change the dynamics of the war and increase our negotiating power, for example, in the context of possible peace initiatives.”

The official expressed little optimism for direct talks in the short term, but said that an intermediary such as Turkey or the United Arab Emirates could be involved in future mediation.

“So it’s far from over. The war continues, but at the same time it is an extremely important development for Ukraine’s positions, for Ukraine’s morale, for the world’s confidence in Ukraine’s capabilities,” the official noted, adding:

“We have once again shown the world that we can surprise, that we are capable of these sudden maneuvers, they are asymmetric, unexpected and put us in a better position in terms of strategic prospects.”

President Putin on Monday promised a “worthy response” to the raid on the border with Ukraine, just as another 11,000 civilians were evacuated to the nearby Kursk region of Belgorod due to “enemy activity”.

“The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces are increasing dramatically, even among the most combat-ready units, units that the enemy is transferring to our border,” Putin said during a televised meeting with senior security officials and regional governors, Reuters reported.

“The enemy will definitely receive a worthy response and all the goals we set for ourselves will, without a doubt, be achieved.” Putin did not back up his claims or provide further details on what Russia’s response might be.

The Russian Defense Ministry initially downplayed the incursion, which began last week, but quickly reversed its stance, saying that about 1,000 troops and numerous tanks and armored vehicles were involved.

On Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged that Ukrainian units had advanced up to 30 kilometers towards Kursk and that fighting was ongoing.

The raid undoubtedly rattled Russian government and defense officials, prompting the evacuation of thousands of citizens from Kursk and nearby Belgorod and the redeployment of Russian troops and resources to Kursk from areas of intense fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The government official Vscek spoke to stressed that Ukraine does not want to annex parts of Russia, but wants to try to use its current position as “leverage” to “achieve a just peace, more quickly.”

“This is not about Ukraine wanting to take over Russian territory. We are confident that the world understands that this is not about annexing parts of Russia. We don’t need that territory. We just need them to leave ours,” the official said.

Geopolitical analysts said the Kursk operation should be carefully monitored and could mark a turning point in the war.

One possible scenario is that more Ukrainian troops could be sent to Kursk to reinforce the operation, although this would deprive crucial frontline positions and leave them weakened and unprotected. Kiev also maintains that its top priority is protecting its troops.

Therefore, much of what happens next will depend on Russia’s reaction to the incursion, with fears that the response could be furious, given the Kremlin’s humiliation.

Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute defence think tank, said Russia had been “gravely embarrassed” by the cross-border strike, but the challenge for Ukraine was to sustain it.

“It will be difficult to maintain a force of any size in Russia and defend against counterattacks, given the limited reserves available to Ukraine,” Savill said in emailed comments.

“Although the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative about their defensive posture, it seems unlikely that they will want to sustain a major incursion for months; they will have to decide when is the best time to surrender the territory they have captured and for what purpose,” he said.

For strategists like David Roche, a veteran investor and strategist at Quantum Strategy, Ukraine’s latest offensive in Kursk “looked more like a breakthrough” that threatened three critical Russian assets: Kursk’s 415,000 residents, two major highways and railways that are major supply routes for Russian forces on the Kharkiv and Sumy fronts in northeastern Ukraine, and, finally, the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is a key energy supplier.

“The Ukrainians have to worry about Russia’s eventual response and the military logistics involved in a rapid advance,” Roche said, but the incursion achieved a number of strategic goals, he noted.

First, the border raid was a humiliation for President Putin, he said. Second, it made the Russian people understand the cost and reality of war, and third, Roche said, the border raid reversed the “terms of comparison by demonstrating that the war must be waged on Russian soil to win.”

Roche said the raid demonstrated that Western concerns about bringing the war directly into Russia and striking inside Russian territory, as well as fears of escalation, were unfounded.

“[The] “The West was wrong to force Ukraine to fight by Moscow’s rules,” Roche said.