What’s happening with the Kursk incursion into Ukraine and the nuclear power plant fire

Moscow and Kiev have blamed each other for Sunday’s massive fire at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, the latest incident coming amid Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s border territory.

Ukrainian officials said Russian forces started the fire at the plant, which they have occupied since March 2022, while the Kremlin-appointed governor of Zaporizhia said Ukrainian shelling was the cause of the blaze.

The occupied nuclear power plant has often been at the center of clashes between Ukraine and Russia, who have repeatedly accused each other of launching dangerous drone strikes and bombings on or near the plant, jeopardizing the safety of the facility and risking a nuclear disaster.

In the latest tense episode, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russian forces of setting a fire at the Enerhodar nuclear power plant, but said local radiation levels were normal.

“As long as Russian terrorists retain control of the nuclear power plant, the situation is not and cannot be normal. From the first day of the seizure of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, Russia has used it only to blackmail Ukraine, the whole of Europe and the world,” Zelenskyy said.

The Russian-appointed governor of Zaporizhia responded to that claim, saying in a Google-translated social media update that the cause of the fire at the facility, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, was Ukrainian shelling.

In a Telegram post, Yevgeny Balitsky said an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) hit one of the plant’s cooling towers and caught fire, adding that emergency services in the region located and extinguished the flames.

“The Ukrainian regime, supported by NATO curators, is systematically bombing the entire northern part of the Zaporizhia region, where UAVs, barrel artillery and mortar artillery can reach. But all measures are being taken to localize the consequences of these attacks,” Balitsky said.

He said he had met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had “clearly indicated increased vigilance and attention towards strategic infrastructure, including the nuclear power plant.”

Neither side has presented evidence to support their claims. Vscek was unable to verify their accounts.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has maintained a rotating team of inspectors at the Zaporizhia site in an effort to maintain safety protocols, said in a statement Sunday evening that its experts had noticed “heavy dark smoke” coming from the northern part of the plant, following “multiple explosions” that occurred throughout the evening.

The UN nuclear watchdog said it had been informed of an alleged drone strike on one of the cooling towers on Sunday morning. The IAEA said there had been no impact on nuclear safety so far.

Tensions between Moscow and Kiev have further escalated in recent days, following the incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia’s border region of Kursk.

The border raid began on Tuesday and appears to have caught Moscow by surprise: on Thursday, the Russian Defense Ministry revised its initial estimates, saying that around 1,000 troops and numerous tanks and armored vehicles had taken part in the raid.

On Sunday, a senior Ukrainian security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP news agency that “thousands” of troops were involved in the operation, which was an attempt to “stretch” and “destabilize” Russia. Vscek could not verify the report.

About 3,000 people have been evacuated from the region due to ongoing Ukrainian drone and missile attacks, according to acting regional governor Alexei Smirnov. He posted on Telegram on Monday that the threat of UAV strikes was ongoing, saying overnight that “Russian air defense forces and assets have been put on alert to repel a possible attack.”

As a result, Kiev’s incursion interrupted Russia’s summer offensive in eastern Ukraine, forcing Moscow to redeploy its troops to Kursk.

Over the past week, Russian defense officials have claimed that their factions have prevented a Ukrainian advance on Kursk. Geotagged footage and Russian military bloggers meanwhile suggest that Ukrainian troops are present in areas up to 35 kilometers inside Russia, according to analysis by the think tank Institute for the Study of War.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily take the initiative on the battlefield in part of the front line, the ISW noted.

“Russia’s possession of the initiative across the entire theater of operations since November 2023 has enabled Russia to determine the location, timing, scale and requirements of the fighting in Ukraine and has forced Ukraine to commit materials and manpower to reactive defensive operations,” the ISW said.

“The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast [region]However, it forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react and redeploy forces and assets in the sector where Ukrainian forces launched attacks.”

The ISW speculated that Putin and the Russian military command “likely misjudged that Ukraine did not have the capacity to contest the initiative.”

Ukraine has been characteristically tight-lipped about its latest operation in Russia’s border territory. Kursk AND one of several border regions that have suffered smaller, shorter incursions in recent months and been hit by more frequent Ukrainian drone strikes and bombings.

Russia and Ukraine say they do not target civilian areas.

President Zelensky acknowledged the raid on Sunday, however, referring to “Ukrainian actions aimed at pushing the war into the aggressor’s territory.”

Zelensky said he was grateful to the Ukrainian units “who ensure this” and that “Ukraine is demonstrating that it is really capable of achieving justice and ensures exactly the kind of pressure that is needed: pressure on the aggressor.”